Spain vs Italy Prediction & Match Preview

Spain and Italy will face each other once again in the replay of the UEFA Nations League semifinal from 2021.

The match is scheduled for Thursday evening at De Grolsch Veste in Enschede, but this time it will take place on Dutch soil. Both teams, considered European powerhouses, find themselves at the same stage of the competition.

Spain secured their spot in the final four thanks to a late goal from Alvaro Morata in their last match against Portugal in Group A2. Following that, La Furia Roja replaced their manager Luis Enrique with Luis de la Fuente, who previously managed the Under-19 and Under-21 teams.

Under de la Fuente’s guidance, Spain had a decent start, winning 3-0 against Norway but then losing 2-0 to Scotland at the beginning of the 2024 EURO qualifiers.

Italy, on the other hand, redeemed themselves after missing out on the 2022 World Cup. They progressed through the UEFA Nations League group stage, defeating strong opponents like Germany, England, and Hungary.

However, they had a slow start in the 2024 EURO qualifications, suffering a 2-1 home defeat against England in March.

Roberto Mancini, the coach of Italy, will rely on his team’s strong defensive efforts in this final-four tournament. Azzurri managed to keep three clean sheets in their last four Nations League matches, against England (twice), Hungary, and Germany.

In their previous encounter, Spain emerged victorious with a 2-1 scoreline, which took place two years ago in the Nations League semifinal. This victory ended Italy’s impressive streak of 37 matches without a defeat.

The two teams also faced each other in the 2020 UEFA EURO semifinal, where Italy advanced on penalties after a 1-1 draw in regular and extra time. In the last eight meetings between these teams, only one match had three or more goals.

Considering the history of their head-to-head encounters, which have been largely low-scoring, it is expected that this match will follow a similar pattern. Therefore, betting on Under 2.5 goals full time seems like the best option, with odds of 1.61.

Alternatively, Italy is favored to keep a clean sheet within the 90 minutes of play, given their impressive defensive performances in recent Nations League matches. The odds for Italy maintaining a clean sheet are 3.40, despite facing tough opponents in the process.