La Liga
Alaves
Rayo VallecanoThe Estadio de Mendizorroza braces itself for a crucial La Liga encounter this Saturday, March 29th, 2025, as Deportivo Alavés host Rayo Vallecano (Kick-off: 18:30 CET / 17:30 GMT). This fixture carries significant weight for both clubs, albeit for vastly different reasons. Alavés find themselves precariously positioned, battling fiercely against the drop, while Rayo Vallecano harbour ambitions of securing a European spot, despite a recent dip in form. This sets the stage for a tense affair where an Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano prediction becomes particularly intriguing.
Alavés’ Fragile Resurgence vs. Rayo’s Stuttering Ambition
Deportivo Alavés, now under the management of Eduardo Coudet following the surprising departure of Luis Garcia Plaza earlier in the season, have shown flickers of improvement recently. As confirmed by MARCA, they enter this match on a three-game unbeaten streak (WDD) in La Liga. This run included a vital home win against Villarreal (achieved with nine men) and hard-fought away draws against Mallorca and Las Palmas.
However, the draw against Las Palmas will sting; Alavés led 2-0 until the 89th minute before conceding twice in stoppage time. This collapse highlighted a worrying trend for Coudet’s side, who have reportedly dropped eleven points from winning positions after the 80th minute this season.
Despite Coudet aiming for a more aggressive, attacking style, results haven’t consistently followed, leaving them hovering just above the La Liga relegation battle zone, potentially only separated by goal difference depending on other results. Making Mendizorroza a fortress is paramount, as stressed by the management.
Conversely, Rayo Vallecano, guided by Iñigo Pérez (Andoni Iraola’s former assistant), have generally impressed this season with their high-intensity football, pushing for an unlikely European spot. However, their momentum has stalled significantly. They arrive in Vitoria-Gasteiz winless in their last five La Liga matches (LLDDL).
This run included tough fixtures against Barcelona, Villarreal, and Real Madrid, but securing only two points (draws vs Sevilla and Real Sociedad) from a possible fifteen is concerning. Their Rayo Vallecano away form has also been patchy, and their attacking threat seems diminished recently, compounded by injuries to key forwards.
Despite the slump, the dream of European football remains alive within the squad, with veteran Óscar Trejo emphasizing its significance.
Tactical Considerations
Alavés, under Coudet, are expected to be aggressive and press high, especially at home. They need to translate their improved attacking intent into goals and, crucially, maintain concentration for the full 90 minutes. Players like Carlos Vicente and Carles Aleñà will be key in providing width and creativity, aiming to supply forwards like Asier Villalibre and Carlos Martin.
Rayo will likely stick to their intense pressing game under Pérez but might be slightly blunted by absences. Their defence has shown vulnerability, conceding frequently in their winless run (potentially 7 goals in the last 5, needing verification from specific match results). Without the suspended Florian Lejeune, their backline could be further unsettled. They will rely on the experience of Trejo and the pace of Álvaro García to create chances, likely focusing on quick transitions. The midfield battle, particularly how Alavés’ Ander Guevara and Joan Jordán cope with Rayo’s central press (likely featuring Pathé Ciss and Pablo Diaz), will be crucial.
Head-to-Head (H2H) Stats: An Evenly Matched Rivalry
The Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano history in recent La Liga encounters suggests a tightly contested affair. Looking at the last six meetings between the sides, the spoils have been shared evenly, with both Alavés and Rayo Vallecano claiming three victories each.
Rayo Vallecano emerged victorious in the reverse fixture earlier this season, securing a narrow 1-0 win at Vallecas. The decisive goal was scored by Sergio Camello, who is unfortunately unavailable for this match due to injury.
However, Alavés can draw confidence from their recent home record against the Madrid-based side. In their last three encounters at Mendizorroza, Alavés have avoided defeat, securing two draws. This suggests they possess the resilience to compete with Rayo on home turf, adding another layer of complexity to any Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano prediction.
Recent La Liga Meetings:
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season 24/25 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-0 | Alavés | Vallecas |
| Season 23/24 | Alavés | 1-0 | Rayo Vallecano | Mendizorroza |
| Season 23/24 | Rayo Vallecano | 2-0 | Alavés | Vallecas |
| Season 22/23 | Alavés | 1-0 | Rayo Vallecano | Mendizorroza |
| Season 22/23 | Rayo Vallecano | 2-0 | Alavés | Vallecas |
| Season 21/22 | Alavés | 0-1 | Rayo Vallecano | Mendizorroza |
This La Liga rivalry often produces close games, and with both teams having clear objectives, another competitive match is expected.
Betting Tips & Odds: Value in a Cautious Approach?
Given the recent form and stakes involved, the betting market suggests a tight contest. Finding the best La Liga betting tips requires careful consideration of both teams’ strengths and weaknesses.
Recommended Bets:
- Under 2.5 Goals: Both teams have had issues finding the net consistently. Alavés, despite Coudet’s attacking intent, haven’t been prolific, while Rayo’s attack has stuttered, failing to score in several recent away matches. Combined with the pressure of the situation, a low-scoring game seems plausible. Odds around 1.44.
- Both Teams to Score – No: This aligns with the Under 2.5 goals tip. Rayo’s recent away scoring woes and Alavés’ potential defensive focus at home could lead to at least one team drawing a blank. Odds around 1.67.
- Alavés Double Chance (Win or Draw): Alavés are unbeaten in their last three and desperately need points at home. Rayo are winless in five and missing key defender Lejeune. While Rayo have quality, Alavés’ home advantage and desperation could see them avoid defeat. The Stats Zone also tips this market. Odds around 1.68.
Odds Comparison (Illustrative – Check live odds):
| Market | Bet365 | Betway |
|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 Goals | 1.44 | 1.45 |
| BTTS – No | 1.67 | 1.65 |
| Alavés Double Chance | 1.68 | 1.70 |
What is a Safe Bet for Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano?
Considering the context, the Alavés Double Chance appears a relatively safer option among the primary markets. Their recent unbeaten run, home advantage, and Rayo’s poor form and defensive suspension offer a solid foundation for this bet. However, no bet is truly ‘safe’ in football.
Predicted Lineups & Injuries: Key Absences for Both Sides
Team news is crucial for the final Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano prediction. Both managers have selection headaches ahead of Saturday’s clash.
Alavés Team News:
Alavés have several doubts. While the initial prompt mentioned GK Antonio Sivera with a muscle injury, recent previews predict Jesús Owono to start. Midfielder Carlos Benavidez, winger Tomas Conechny, and forward Toni Martinez are also listed as questionable due to injuries. Their availability could impact Coudet’s final selection.
- Predicted Alavés Starting XI (4-4-2): Owono; Tenaglia, Abqar, Santiago Mourino, Manu Sanchez; Carlos Vicente, Joan Jordan, Ander Guevara, Carles Alena; Carlos Martin, Asier Villalibre
- Unavailable: (None confirmed definitively, monitor questionable players)
- Questionable: Benavidez (Injured), Conechny (Injured), T. Martinez (Injured), Sivera (GK – Status unclear based on conflicting info)
Rayo Vallecano Team News:
Rayo Vallecano have significant confirmed absences. Key centre-back Florian Lejeune is suspended, a major blow to their defence. Fellow defender Abdul Mumin (knee), forward Randy Nteka, and the scorer from the reverse fixture, Sergio Camello, are all ruled out with injuries. Furthermore, influential attacker Isi Palazon and striker Raúl de Tomás (illness) are doubtful, potentially weakening their attacking options considerably. Goalkeeper Augusto Batalla, recently secured long-term, is expected to start.
- Predicted Rayo Vallecano Starting XI (4-2-3-1): Batalla; Ratiu, Balliu, Aridane Hernandez, Pep Chavarria; Ciss, Pablo Diaz; Jorge de Frutos, Oscar Trejo, Alvaro Garcia; Sergi Guardiola
- Unavailable: Lejeune (Suspended), Mumin (Injured), Nteka (Injured), Camello (Injured)
- Questionable: Isi Palazon (Injured), Raul de Tomas (Illness)
Key Battle: The Alavés forward pairing (likely Martin & Villalibre) against Rayo’s makeshift central defence (potentially Balliu & Aridane Hernandez) without Lejeune could be decisive. If Alavés can exploit this potential weakness, it significantly boosts their chances.
FAQ
- Q: What time is Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano?
- A: The match kicks off at 18:30 Central European Time (CET) / 17:30 Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) on Saturday, March 29, 2025, at the Estadio de Mendizorroza in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain.
- Q: Who scored in the last Alavés vs Rayo match?
- A: Sergio Camello scored the only goal in Rayo Vallecano’s 1-0 victory over Alavés in the reverse fixture earlier this season. Camello is injured and will miss this upcoming match.
